Citizen scenarios 2060: A necessary and hard look into the future, By Ibezim-Ohaeri, Dion, et al.

Migration, both external and internal, will emboss the next 40 years. A 2019 Africa Polling Institute finding indicated that 32 per cent wanted to leave the country if they could. Two years later, that number had skyrocketed to 73 per cent. Now hold your breath: In student seminars held across the six geo-political zones with over a thousand participants, 90 per cent of the youths said that they would leave the country if they could.

The initiative Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060 (CS60) is exploring the critical uncertainties, key drivers and potential outcomes, relating to the country’s future, and most importantly with civil society organisations (CSOs) leading the process. Through a combination of advanced scenario creation software and the analyses of local and international experts, CS60 is providing a glimpse into some disturbing but very real probabilities for Nigeria’s future.  

CS60 completed its second workshop just a few days ago, with participants considering Nigeria’s major uncertainty factors until the country’s 100th year of independence. Climate change, the economy, society and population, and governance, among others, were at the top of mind. Future scenarios considered for Nigeria include business as usual, more of the same, gradual progress and paradigm shifts.

Three major areas explored included urbanisation, mitigation and engagement of citizens/trust. Hardly academic, the scenarios laid out the brutal realities, which this generation, and more than likely future ones, will have to face. The scenarios suggest that only concerted action, first and foremost of citizens, and how they choose their elected representatives, will avert the continuing slide into the abyss, with not only great personal implications, but also continental and global ones.

Migration to and from everywhere

Migration, both external and internal, will emboss the next 40 years. A 2019 Africa Polling Institute finding indicated that 32 per cent wanted to leave the country if they could. Two years later, that number had skyrocketed to 73 per cent. Now hold your breath: In student seminars held across the six geo-political zones with over a thousand participants, 90 per cent of the youths said that they would leave the country if they could.

So, where do all of the essential workers – doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers – come from? Frankly, therein lies the existential question. For without enough of these professions, this house will fall. The only potential economic silver lining to mass migration will be remittances from abroad – which could ensure that millions eke out a living.

Economic-induced migration is one thing. The other amorphous challenge that has arrived is climate change. Those who ignore it, both citizens who vote and policy makers who should be creating policy, will likely be on the wrong side of history. The North will not only have frequent food shortages, but potentially tens of millions could leave it to settle in more liveable areas. Hardly a surprise, it is impossible to think that the farmer/herder debate will not exacerbate.

In the South, the Niger Delta may be producing its own set of catastrophic circumstances for those living there. Again, migration towards the North and the centre is more than likely.

Many megacities

Looking at urbanisation, Lagos has been Africa’s lighthouse and is indeed an economic powerhouse. However, with that status comes potential disaster – more migrants, slums without end, the privatisation of basic services (private wells and schools, generators, a super elite behind gated communities with their own security). And with that comes not one iota of equity. Social scissors are gapingly open in this scenario, never to be reversed.

There is a potential silver lining in rapid urbanisation – the economies of scale and the creation of services that do just that – serve the public. First and foremost, transport. Then, housing. Next, health; medical staff, essential workers, etc. A city of three or five million, let alone 15 or 30 million, cannot function without these basic services.

Nigeria’s population will likely hit 400 million by 2050. Lagos aside, which may one day hit 30 million, the secondary cities of Jos, Kaduna and Enugu will become the new metropolises.

Given climate change and the flight to the cities, government, consisting of experts who are accountable and who lead, needs to play a very pro-active role in shaping a daunting, if not biblical, task into something manageable. 

First and foremost, climate resilient infrastructure, land reform and proper urban planning, will go long ways in addressing these needs. The alternative is a free for all, where victory goes to the highest bidder (both politician and private persons) and equity is barely an afterthought, indeed, just an interesting policy from once-upon-a-time.

There is a potential silver lining in rapid urbanisation – the economies of scale and the creation of services that do just that – serve the public. First and foremost, transport. Then, housing. Next, health; medical staff, essential workers, etc. A city of three or five million, let alone 15 or 30 million, cannot function without these basic services.

With every citizen’s engagement, a more accountable government is in place, which makes a better future more achievable. What can citizens very practically do to engage their government? Register to vote (don’t sell it) and take the long view, if you can. Your children will thank you for this….

Citizen engagement – too far gone

Trust in the government, and indeed many other pillars in countries – the private sector and religious institutions – are exceedingly low. When a “normal”, non-connected citizen goes for a stamp or a certificate and that seemingly benign errand turns into a Kafkaesque misadventure down hallways, taking numbers and being flung off to another window or office, citizens’ trust in government tends to hit negative territory. The concept of public service remains forever to be “on the take”. This erosion of trust will one day play out in, “why should I have anything to do with this experiment known as Nigeria? I am an X (tribe), I am a Y (religion).” 

Nigerians are survivors and have shown their resilience over the decades. Yes, perhaps they may squeeze out an existence in the likely unpleasant future. However, it won’t be a life worth living.

Denial may feel good, but it accomplishes nothing

Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060 provides citizens the very rare opportunity to create the future that they want, not what officials and barons dictate. The initiative is also geared to spark the entire country to be the change and live the change to create the Nigeria that is a global player, not the hobbling giant of Africa. The scenarios are the first chapter in this initiative, the next task will be loose roadmaps, which CSOs will create, that will serve as the basis for what MUST be done on the way to 2060 to achieve a just, resilient and sustainable Nigeria.

With every citizen’s engagement, a more accountable government is in place, which makes a better future more achievable. What can citizens very practically do to engage their government? Register to vote (don’t sell it) and take the long view, if you can. Your children will thank you for this….

Signed by: 

• Victoria Ibezim-Ohaeri, Executive Director, Spaces for Change;
• Olamide Udoma-Ejorh, Director, Lagos Urban Development Initiative;
• Bell Ihua, Executive Director, Africa Polling Institute;
• Chukwumerije Okereke, Director of Centre for Climate and Development, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike;
• Odeh Friday, Country Director, Accountability Lab
• Oluseun Onigbinde, Co-founder/Director, BudgIT
• Aloysius Bongwa, Lead Specialist in Urban Finance and Infrastructure, Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies, The Netherlands
• Richard Dion, Co-initiator of Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060