By Temidayo Akinsuyi
There is no doubt that Peter Gregory Obi is the ‘star boy’
of politics in present-day Nigeria. The appellation was formerly given to the
immediate past Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo (SAN). However, with the end
of the Muhammadu Buhari presidency, Osinbajo seems to have faded into political
oblivion, especially following his defeat in the presidential primary of the
ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
For daring to contest against his former principal,
President Bola Tinubu, many leaders of the party have kept Osinbajo at arm’s
length. Since leaving office, he has not actively identified with the APC and
was even absent at the caucus meeting of the party earlier this year. According
to his media aide, “he was out of Nigeria for some engagements to which he had
long been committed.” It is unknown if the opposition coalition movement is in
talks with him.
As for Obi, he has remained the beautiful bride of Nigerian
politics since May 2022, when he dumped the major opposition party, the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP), for the Labour Party (LP). Many who dismissed him at
the time, claiming he had no political structure, were stunned by the outcome
of the 2023 presidential election. He defeated the strongman of Lagos
politics—President Bola Tinubu—in his home base of Lagos State. He also won in
the FCT and several other states, including Enugu, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Cross
River, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Edo, and Plateau. To this day, many of his
supporters, especially those in the Obidient Movement, believe he won the
election, placing the blame squarely on the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) and the judiciary.
Ahead of the 2027 general elections, opposition parties
remain relentless in their quest to deny President Tinubu a second term. Given
the power of incumbency and the APC’s dominance, it is widely believed that
defeating the ruling party will be an uphill task for any single political
party. The challenge is even more daunting considering that, while the APC
continues to gain strength through defections from governors and federal
lawmakers, other political parties remain mired in internal crises and a lack
of clear direction. With the PDP already out of the coalition, major
stakeholders like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Peter Obi,
and others have yet to decide whether to float a new party or adopt one of the
existing ones. Once that hurdle is crossed, the next challenge will be deciding
who flies the party’s presidential flag.
From available information, Atiku Abubakar is determined to
make one final run for the presidency. Having made some costly political
missteps in 2003 and 2023, Atiku is reportedly more strategic now and ready to
go all out to win. Credible sources suggest Atiku is interested in having Peter
Obi as his running mate. On the surface, this shouldn’t pose a problem, as both
men previously ran on the same ticket in 2019. However, much has changed since
then, and that is why this article focuses on two costly mistakes Obi cannot
afford to make.
The first mistake would be for Obi to accept the position of
running mate to anyone. A rational observer must ask: Why are so many political
actors gravitating toward Obi? The answer is simple—because of his massive
youth followership. Atiku may believe he can secure votes in the north and use
Obi’s popularity in the South to clinch the presidency. Some sources even claim
Atiku has promised to serve only one term and hand over to Obi in 2031. But Obi
should not let desperation or sugar-coated promises cloud his judgment. The
Obidient Movement, which forms the core of his support base, wants him as
president, not as a vice president to any politician from the old guard.
For context, it’s worth recalling how the Obidient Movement
emerged. In the lead-up to the 2019 election, Buhari ran with Osinbajo, while
Atiku chose Obi. As political editor of Daily Independent at the time, I
attended the December 2018 vice-presidential debate, where many Nigerians
wondered why intelligent, capable men like Obi and Osinbajo were only running
mates while Atiku and Buhari, whom many considered spent forces, were the main
contenders. I also vividly recall the January 2019 presidential town hall
meeting, The Candidates, where Osinbajo answered most of the questions posed to
Buhari. It got so bad that moderator Kadaria Ahmed had to tell Osinbajo to let
Buhari respond for himself.
Buoyed by strong public support, both Obi and Osinbajo
decided to contest for the presidency in 2023. In March 2022, Obi picked up the
PDP presidential nomination form, sponsored by a youth-led group called Like
Minds (LM), led by Ekene Nwakuche. They described Obi as a seasoned technocrat
capable of steering the nation in the right direction.
However, two days before the PDP primary, Obi resigned from
the party, citing “issues that are at variance with my persona and principles,”
and joined the Labour Party. Excited youths across Nigeria rallied around him,
initiating what became known as the Obidient Movement. Contrary to Chief Bisi
Akande’s erroneous claim that the Obidients orchestrated the #EndSARS protests
in 2020 to stop Tinubu’s ambition, the movement only emerged in 2022. In 2020,
many youths were actually hopeful that Osinbajo would clinch the APC ticket—an
expectation dashed when he lost to Tinubu.
The 2023 election saw a surge of first-time voters. Many
politically indifferent youths registered for PVCs and voted for Obi. I
personally know two Nigerians who travelled from the UK just to vote for him.
These youths want Obi to lead Nigeria, not serve as a deputy. Their eyes are
now on the decision he will make regarding the coalition movement.
Becoming a running mate is a risky proposition. Politicians
often renege on promises once they secure power. Even if Atiku means well, the
sycophants around him will likely pressure him to seek a second term. We’ve
seen similar moves with President Tinubu. More importantly, in Nigeria, vice
presidents are often treated as ceremonial figures. During the 2022 campaign,
Shettima promised to handle security while Tinubu would oversee the economy.
We’ve all seen how that’s turned out.
Obi has made commendable progress in organising the Obidient
Movement into a structured platform. He appointed Dr. Yunusa Tanko—a tested and
capable politician—as national coordinator. Executives like Nana Kazaure and
Morris Monye have also been mobilising new members ahead of 2027. I’ve spoken
with Tanko recently and emphasised the need to bring in more technocrats and
professionals. Their efforts are commendable.
The second mistake Obi cannot afford to make is to contest
the 2027 elections on the Labour Party (LP) platform. In a recent interview, he
stated: “I will still continue to run in the Labour Party. I’m a member of the
Labour Party.” In my view, that is political suicide. No single party can
currently challenge the APC, especially with Tinubu as a candidate. The LP is
deeply factionalised, with three individuals—Julius Abure, Lamidi Apapa, and
Nenadi Usman—each claiming to be the party’s national chairman. Abure even
referred to Governor Alex Otti, LP’s only sitting governor, as “a dwarf.” Obi
blames the APC for the crisis, while the Abure faction accuses Obi of being
responsible for the party’s decline. The internal squabbles appear far from
over. Most LP-elected lawmakers have already defected to the APC, and more will
follow, as they lack ideological discipline.
Therefore, Obi should discard the idea of contesting under
the LP. No miracle—political or otherwise—can make the party viable for 2027.
Instead, he should leverage his popularity to negotiate from a position of
strength within the coalition and push to emerge as its presidential candidate.
If Atiku proposes to do one term and hand over in 2031, Obi can reciprocate by
offering to do a single term and return power to the north in 2031. After all,
the prevailing sentiment is for the south to complete its eight years, as the
north did from 2015 to 2023. And four years is enough for any serious leader to
implement transformational reforms.
To repeat for emphasis: the youths supporting Obi want him
as president. Settling for vice-president could cost him their support.
Lastly, Obi should pray the APC’s ‘juju’ doesn’t claim
Governor Otti the way it did Valentine Ozigbo. That would be one loss too many
for the papa, mama, pikin party.
I end with a quote from the late American scholar and leadership
expert, Warren Bennis: “Followers who tell the truth and leaders who listen to
it are an unbeatable combination.”
Akinsuyi, former Group Politics Editor of Daily Independent, writes
from the United Kingdom.
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