…Predicts possibility of defeating Tinubu is slim, but his margin of victory may be higher than what brought him to power in 2023
By Daniel Kanu
Dr Rexkennedy Saltlove, a human rights activist and public affairs commentator, is the president/executive director, Citizens Rights and Empowerment Advocacy Initiative (CREMA Initiative).
In this chat, he spoke on some contending national issues, including: emergency rule in Rivers State, why the Peoples Democratic Party finds it difficult to sanction Nyesome Wike, and why it may be difficult to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027, among other issues. Excerpt:
You have remained silent for some time now despite happenings in the na-tion. Why?
I don’t think I am. I am not actually silent. As a patriot who believes in the growth and development of this nation, it would be very unpatriotic not to be concerned about developments in the na-tion. However, I am not regu-larly commenting and granting interviews as I used to. At times one gets weary of situations as they seem to be what one has been speaking on or against and the government and fel-low citizens seem to feel un-concerned. One begins to ask: ‘Why bother?’ Secondly, when one looks at some positions I took on the Buhari/APC gov-ernment, nine years ago, after the government came to power, and one sees what is happening today, it is like a dejavu or neg-ative prophecy being fulfilled. One has to be cautious not to be seen as a prophet of doom, who is excited about bad things happening in the country.
There seems to be no solution in sight over the crisis that now appears intractable in the PDP and the Labour Party. Why do you think it is so?
First, both parties were birthed ‘circumstantially’ with just one drive – to unseat the government in power and not on any particular princi-ple, value system or political ideology. This brought about a gathering of strange bedfel-lows, inundated with ‘hunger for power’ infection wanting to be in charge. This ‘hunger for power’ to be seen and be in charge, has permeated their DNA respectively. It is a power tussle that is tearing the par-ties apart. Also, the desperate fight for power and relevance within parties leave such par-ties vulnerable to greedy people in a main or leading opposition party, to look for someone they can use as a fifth columnist, sponsored to infiltrate or divide any of the parties to cause dis-affection and weaken the par-ties. You know that a house divided against itself cannot stand.
How do you see the situation where one man, of course, you know him, Nyesom Wike, seems to be holding the main op-position, PDP, to its jugular at virtual-ly every level and the PDP leaders seem to be helpless?
When principles, values and common ideology are not the motivation that birth a par-ty, it becomes a bed of strange fellows. Wike is taking what Atiku did in PDP in 2014/2015 a notch higher. Atiku wanted Goodluck Jonathan unseated by all means. He pulled PDP governors with him, shout-ing that it was the turn of the North by an unwritten agree-ment on presidential rotation between North and South. Ati-ku, with seven PDP governors, defected to the APC. Then, he contested against Buhari and lost. I am not sure if Atiku was sanctioned for what he did. So, with Buhari serving his two terms, the issue of the presi-dency going to the South came up, instead of Atiku to team up with Peter Obi, who was in PDP, he wanted to contest. Kar-ma caught up with him. Wike left with five PDP governors. Since there is a precedence, PDP lacks the moral courage to discipline Wike.
Many do not think that the declaration of State of Emergen-cy in Rivers State by President Bola Tinubu seems not to be the solution to the political crisis in the state. Do you think so too? If so, why?
Definitely. Despite using Sec-tion 305, Sub-section 3(d) of the Nigerian Constitution to jus-tify the President’s action, the removal of a properly elected democratic government and in-stalling an administrator under the guise of emergency rule is wrong. The premise for the dec-laration of state of emergency in Rivers State for the political crises that was ongoing was wrong. It was premised on oil pipeline attack within 24 hours of it happening and fear of se-curity threat and conflicts that might take ethnic dimension. Declaration of state of emer-gency will not solve the prob-lem of godfatherism between Wike and Fubara, which is the reason for the brouhaha, com-bined with the creeping in of ethnicity by unguarded and in-flammatory statements made by Wike, a federal minister against the Ijaws not having the numerical strength to produce governor. This implies that it was his godfatherism that helped the Ijaw become relevant politi-cally. This angered the Ijaws who vowed to stand by their own, polarising the state along ethnic or tribal lines. I believe the action of the president was politicising the state of emer-gency and dancing to the whims and caprices of Wike, who has five PDP governors in his grip that supported APC to produce the president. Anything to dis-please Wike may lead to Tinu-bu’s loss in 2027, considering the margin with which he won the presidency against the two leading opposition parties in 2023. Tinubu used the ‘State of Emergency’ as a political weap-on, when there was no clear danger in comparison to the security risk that gave room for previous state of emergencies.
How do you see some of the actions of the Rivers State Sole Administrator, Vice Admiral Ette Ibas (rtd), so far?
One cannot build a right or proper building on a wrong foundation. Whatever decision the ‘military’ administrator takes is wrong. The failure of the Sole Administrator to ap-pear twice before the House of Representatives Ad-hoc Com-mittee on Rivers State Over-sight shows that he is operating like a military dictator , hence he is disrespectful to constitu-tional order. We have a prec-edent where a state of emer-gency was declared in a couple of states during Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan’s era due to insecurity and the state governors were not removed. The action of the Sole Admin-istrator suspending political appointees who are serving the people is obviously weap-onising the emergency rule to destroy the political struc-tures of the elected governor and weaken his influence in the state. The Sole Administrator is, therefore, the president’s tool as he panders to the desires of Wike to have his backing for his second term. The president himself knows that.
With the ongoing re-strategising by political forces nationwide, how do you predict the shape of politics towards 2027 will look like?
The truth is if a religious war does not happen under President Tinubu’s APC Mus-lim – Muslim ticket, it will be a miracle’. The politics of 2027 could be highly polarised and decided along religious lines or North-South divide. This deduction is benchmarked on the notion that with the level of insecurity and challenges under this Muslim-Muslim ticket, Christians have been victims and taking the heat of most of the attacks. Avail-able data from some platforms which have not been refuted by government show that over 600,000 fatalities from May 2023 – April 2024, secondly, the North-South divide angle is still re-ligious tainted. The North is predominantly Muslim-domi-nated, while the South is main-ly Christian dominated. If the North joins hands together to harass President, a Southern-er, out of office as they did to Jonathan, the South may not take it as they will team up irrespective of religious dif-ferences with the president. Politics is dynamic. A lot of things, indices will, therefore, come to play.
Do you foresee by benefit of foresight the defeat of the incumbent president and the ruling party in 2027?
Nigeria is not America with two major parties with strong ideological divide, where a president can be removed after doing just one term. Nigeria political alliances have been a bed of strange fellows coming together with the sole purpose of taking power and removing the government in office. There are no binding values, philoso-phies or ideologies that place the moral burden of commit-ment to a cause among them. Anyone can drift at the weft of a finger as long as his interest is being pandered. The prem-ise for saying Nigeria is not USA where a president can do a term, is that of the alliances. Majority of them are interested in being the president of Nige-ria. A lot of horse trading will take place as everyone will look for his interest first, not the na-tion’s or its citizens’ interests. Thus, their ability to sacrifice their personal interests will de-termine how strong they are, which is very unlikely. I am not a strong fan of the president. But, I have constitutional, spir-itual and moral obligation as a patriotic citizen to pray, give him my support and critique him to be the best for this na-tion as someone leading us now, irrespective of how he gets to the office. One thing I will ad-mit is: President Tinubu is a master strategist in politics and political maneouvering. He is not called the Jagaban for nothing. The sacrifices he made to get to where he is to-day, building a party from the grassroots/scratch, sacrificing five states under the party he built, and ceding the presiden-tial ticket to Buhari, a man with only one state to his name at the time they formed an alliance (APC), is sacrifice I am very sure none of these contenders pushing for alliances will make. Before, he came to the point of saying ‘Emi lo kan’ (meaning ‘It is my turn’), he knew what he had invested in a period span-ning at least 23 years politically from 1999-2023, which none of his traducers or opponents can boast of. Therefore, the possi-bility of the strategists remov-ing him and his being defeated in 2027 is highly improbable. He has already started taking actions, positioning himself for a comeback as he is likely to remove the INEC chairman – Mahmood, who was not appointed by him. I will not be wrong to predict that two things he may do next before the 2027 election: appoint a loyalist as INEC chairman who may come from the South or Southwest in particular (reason for this, I will keep to my chest for now) and possibly drop his Vice, Shettima, and take a Christian as his running mate to woo the Christians in the North and divide the North-ern vote. He will do all he can to unite and get massive propor-tions of the Southern votes. The possibility of him being defeated is slim as the margin of victory may be higher than what brought him to power in 2023.