2027 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: DEFECTIONS: Who’s Next?

May 04, (THEWILL) – Two years to the next general elections in 2027, politicking has unexpectedly gone up several decibels in Nigeria, no thanks to a combination of factors and power play between President Bola Tinubu and opposition interests within his ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC) and other political parties.

In the event, both divides are leaving nothing to chance. They can be so cold-blooded in their calculations and so deft in their moves that only those directly involved in the scheme of things are in the know of their plans.

President Tinubu wants to reduce opposition to its lowest ahead of his reelection bid; the opposition wants to take advantage of the worsening social and economic conditions to consolidate its coalition plans in what is shaping up to be fought along ethnic lines – North vs South.

The lingering leadership crisis rocking the major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party, together with the battle cry that the presidency must reside in the South in fulfillment of the unwritten power sharing deal between the the political class that presidential power should rotate every eight years between the North and South zones, have enabled easy poaching of key leaders in the crisis-ridden parties.

THEWILL writes that the Tinubu camp’s strategy is to capture the entire oil-rich South-south, the cash cow of the PDP and then move to consolidate the South-west, the president’s home region.

Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s recent defection from the PDP to the APC provides an explanation of the deft moves being made by the President and his men.

THEWILL learnt that only President Bola Tinubu, Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State (Chairman of APC Governors’ Forum) and his Kwara counterpart, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq (Chairman of Nigeria Governors’ Forum) were involved in the plan. National Chairman of the Party, Abdullahi Ganduje, was in the dark of developments until the night before Oborevwori announced his defection when he was informed.

The governor blamed his defection on the prolonged, weary leadership crisis in the PDP. Splintered by the divisive party primaries in 2022, where it broke its unwritten power sharing arrangement between the north and southern Nigeria and handed its presidential ticket to Atiku Abubakar.

THEWILL however notes that the most significant consideration was the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s (EFCC) aggressive investigation of Governor Oborevwori’s mentor, former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, who was also the PDP’s vice-presidential candidate in the 2023 election, over billions of naira he allegedly stole from the state’s treasury.

Thus, with the PDP crisis threatening to leave it in comatose, the APC in the state was waxing stronger with the support of the federal government leaving no option for the governor and his mentor in their calculations ahead of 2027 politics.

Undaunted, the governor, who defected with all Local Government chairmen, his cabinet, and major figures of the PDP in the state, is moving ahead to consolidate his hold on the APC after his new party leaders recognized him as their leader in the state. Sources close to Oborevwori told THEWILL that he would expand the state cabinet to accommodate APC interests and appoint more Special Advisers from his new party. One of the sources dismissed the idea of a cabinet dissolution. “That option is not on the table,” the reliable source said.

What is true for Oborevwori is also true for many governors who are eyeing the APC wagon to pursue their ambition in 2027 for safety. The circumstances and conditions may differ from one geo-political zone to the other, but the goal, which is to consummate their political ambition, is the same.

SOUTHSOUTH

After Governor Oborevwori’s defection, the next in line is likely Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom state, another long-standing PDP state, like Delta, since 1999.
He is said to be disappointed with his party over the protracted leadership crisis that appears to make progress impossible. He recently disclosed his intention to support President Tinubu’s second term bid and used the occasion of a party event last week to haul a barb at the state of his party’s structure.

Speaking at the Ukanafun/Oruk Anam federal constituency town square meeting held at QIC Central School, Ikot Akpankuk, Eno likened the PDP to a faulty aircraft.

He said, “What Akwa Ibom people want is good governance, not the name of the party. If you wanted to travel with Ibom Airline, and on the verge of taking off, it developed a fault that won’t enable it to fly, won’t you board the next available plane to take you to your destination? Whether Ibom Air or Air Peace, board the flight that is ready to take you to your destination. Board the flight and forget the name of the airline.”

His mentor and predecessor, Udom Emmanuel, is currently on the EFCC watch list too over alleged theft of billions of naira from the state’s coffers. Moreover, Governor Eno is also a pal to the President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, whom he “allowed” to maintain a foothold in the state when APC “won” in Akpabio’s LGA, Essien Udim LGA, during the October 7, 2024 Local Government polls in the state. PDP won in the remaining 30 LGAs.

Bayelsa and Rivers States, however, present a different set of political calculations that cloud talks about defection.

Though Governor Siminalayi Fubara met with President Tinubu in London recently, fueling speculations of his defection as part of the bargain to set aside emergency rule and return him to power, the objective conditions are putting things in check. General public opinion both within and outside the state is in support of his reinstatement unconditionally.

For now, the common enemy is the administrator, Ibok Ette-Ibas, seen by many as the usurper. Still, as Fubara submits himself to ongoing peace talks with his rival, Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), there is no guarantee that defection would not be on the cards if the PDP fails to resolve its crisis during its National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting on May 15, 2025.

Of all the PDP governors in the South-south, Duoye Diri of Bayelsa State appears to be the last man standing on the party platform, come what may.

Also, the state is one of the most homogenous in Nigeria with a majority Ijaw population, which has been further united by the political travails of Governor Fubara, an Ijaw, and the perceived ethnic slur against them by Wike.

Better still, Diri is currently Chairman of the South-south PDP Governors Forum. He is also an influential member of the party. While inaugurating the South-south zonal caretaker committee last week, he said he would fulfill the responsibility expected of him by the National Working Committee, which mandated him to look into the affairs of the party as it affects the zone.

SOUTHWEST ZONE

Among the six states in the South-west zone, PDP controls two, Oyo and Osun. The rest are APC-led. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, who is serving his second term, is keen on taking a shot at the presidency in 2027.

Reacting to questions about his eligibility for the Presidency, Makinde said he has the capacity to be Nigeria’s President. “I don’t have any doubt that I have the capacity to occupy the highest office in this land and I have what it takes…” he said. He is only waiting for the party to overcome its current crisis before stepping into the ring.

The question of his defection is clearly not in the cards. But whether the party will retain that state in 2027 is debatable. The governor won his election by the grace of President Tinubu, who brokered a deal between APC members and Makinde. APC holds the three Senate seats and eight Reps seats against four for PDP in the state. The party will likely fall to the APC in 2027. Moreover, Makinde is a Wike ally, and if he were to get the party ticket, he would be a walkover for Tinubu because of his antecedents and weaker platform.

In Osun state, where an off-cycle governorship election will be held in 2026, Governor Ademola Adeleke may be able to hold on to his weekend vow not to defect from the PDP to APC.

“My people, party elders and chiefs, I declare before you today that I am not defecting to APC or any other political party. I remain in PDP,” the governor last week told the Osun Stakeholders Forum, who later passed a vote of confidence on his ability to govern the state and endorsed him for a second term.

SOUTHEAST

Apart from Abia, governed by Governor Alex Otti of the LP, and Enugu by Peter Mbah of the PDP, the other three states of Ebonyi and Imo are governed by Francis Nwifuru and Hope Uzodinma of the APC, respectively. The fifth state, Anambra, is governed by Charles Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

For the party whose foundation and principles are linked to the iconic Igbo leader Odimegwu Ojukwu, APGA has been able to retain its Anambra foothold since winning the governorship there in 2003, a year after it was formed.

Governor Otti of Abia said that considering the “existential realities,” both in his state and his party, LP, he would not defect. The recent Supreme Court ruling on party supremacy over matters affecting political parties has given the crisis-ridden LP a second chance to redeem its image, he said, adding that as a former member of APC, APGA, and PDP before joining LP and winning the governorship election on its platform, he has chosen to settle down with the party that helped him fulfill his ambition.

“We are in a democracy which encourages multi-partyism, so why should I defect to another party just because others are doing it or because of my personal interest?”

Unlike his Abia counterpart, Governor Mbah of Enugu state, who recently received two House of Representatives defectors from the LP alongside a member in the House of Assembly into the PDP, is basking in the glory of the defections considering that he narrowly defeated the LP candidate, Chijioke Edeoga, in the 2023 governorship polls. Besides, APC is weak in the state to mount sufficient pressure on him.

Still, Governor Mbah, who openly praised the President’s reform policies and “statesmanship” during the president’s visit to Enugu to commission projects early this year, will not hesitate to defect to the APC and succumb to the political gimmick of ‘belonging to the center’ mantra if the PDP’s upcoming NEC meeting fails to resolve the crisis in the party.

NORTH CENTRAL ZONE

Among the six states in this zone, Plateau and Taraba states are the only PDP-controlled states. The others, namely Niger, Kogi, Kwara, and Nasarawa, are controlled by the APC.

With Gen. Theophilus Danjuma still the ultimate godfather in Taraba politics, the state will remain PDP. His radical stand on insecurity, to the effect that Nigerians should collectively and individually arm themselves to deal a decisive blow to insecurity as the Federal Government has failed to do the needful, has coloured the politics in the state. Taraba has witnessed and continues to witness attacks from ruthless Fulani herdsmen. As one of the retired generals that sponsored Olusegun Obasanjo’s presidential candidacy on the platform of the PDP in 1999, the aging Gen. Danjuma has continued to support the party in his state.

In Plateau, Governor Caleb Mutfwang has ruled out defection. Conveying the governor’s stand, party Chairman in the state, Chris Hassan, said that though many members have defected from the party and a few persons from other parties have defected to the PDP across the country, Plateau remains PDP. “The PDP remains the party of our people and for the people. Together, we shall continue to march towards the greater heights of our beloved state.”

NORTHWEST, NORTHEAST

In the seven states in the Northwest, the PDP reigns in Zamfara state only, while Kano is governed by the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Sokoto, Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina, and Kaduna are all APC-compliant.

In the Northeast, however, the PDP reigns in Bauchi and Adamawa.

Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara has been having a running battle with his predecessor, Bello Matawalle, currently Minister of State for Defence, an APC leader. He continues to accuse Matawalle, who governed on the platform of the APC, of running the state aground, as well as openly giving support to bandits during his tenure. The Minister has denied the allegations. Their quarrel has an element of territoriality to it, making defection impossible, for now.

Like Governor Makinde of Oyo State, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state, who is serving his second term, is keen on running for president in 2027 on the platform of the PDP.

Adamawa State, where Governor Usman Fintiri governs, is home to the party’s main opposition leader Atiku Abubakar. The governor would not forget in a hurry how the APC almost snatched victory from him through the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Hudu Yunusa Ari, who colluded with the APC to falsify results. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) later dismissed the REC for electoral offenses. Here, PDP and APC are poles apart in the state. Besides, Abubakar wields significant influence in the state, where he holds the chieftaincy title of Waziri, which makes him second-in-command to the traditional ruler, the Lamido.

Interestingly, the defections at present are one-directional from the PDP to the APC. None from the APC has indicated interest to defect to a rival party or the PDP.

So, for the PDP, the challenge in the coming days is great. The battle cry that the presidency must remain in the South is working in favour of the President and his party for now. His determination to battle the opposition to the ground in the face of mounting socioeconomic challenges is gaining ground as his foot soldiers seize the momentum presented by a disorganized opposition.

PDP MAY 11 NEC MEETING

This crucial meeting holds a key to a turn-around in the fortunes of the opposition ahead of 2027.

At present, the NWC’s appointment of Arch. Sekoni Koshoedo as Acting National Secretary has helped the party regain some stability ahead of its crucial NEC meeting scheduled for May 11, 2025.

It can make uninterrupted contact with relevant agencies such as INEC. Sources say the generality of its members are waiting eagerly for the outcome of the meeting meant to resolve all the lingering administrative, leadership, and disciplinary issues in the party.

On the other hand, there is the fear that the outcome may be an anti-climax. If the forces loyal to Wike and Atiku maintain their mutually exclusive grounds and fail to reach consensus or make some compromise, the party may split down the middle.

Then, the plane story painted by Governor Eno of Akwa Ibom State will come to pass.